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Currently, U.S. cable compa- nies account for about 30 percent of wireless industry net additions and have accumulated nearly 6 million mobile lines, represents about 2 percent of the U.S. mobile phone market (prepaid and postpaid), according to Moffett’s estimates. And this growth, said Moffett, has come despite handset promotions that aren’t anywhere near as aggressive as those from the incumbent wireless providers. In terms of revenue, Moffett expects Xfinity Mobile’s annual take to reach $5.12 billion by 2025, account- ing for 6.8 percent of the company’s cable segment revenues, up from a prior model of 6.2 percent. Charter’s Spectrum Mobile unit is expected to pull in annual revenues of $4.23 billion by 2025 and account for 7.25 percent of total revenues by then, up from an earlier estimate of 6.2 percent. While the full details of the Comcast and Charter MVNO deals with Verizon are not public, Moffett believes the margins on their respective unlimited plans are “razor thin, at best.” But he expects those economics to improve as both cable operators start deploying strand-mounted CBRS small cells in dense, high-traffic areas. “Cable is presented with a perfect ROI arbitrage; they can take the high ROI parts of the network for themselves, and leave the low ROI parts of the network to their MVNO host,” he said, “all without sacrificing anything with respect to their national coverage footprint.” Moffett estimates costs of about $2,500 per strand-mounted CBRS small cell, versus $25,000 for a more traditional small cell deployment, as cable ops aren’t as saddled with costs tied to new zoning and permitting, fiber splicing and separate powering. Cable’s offload strategy, however, will require another key piece: eSIMs in customer handsets. Charter and Comcast will need eSIM-equipped devices to prioritize the CBRS network where it’s available, Moffett pointed out, noting that it’s still the early days for eSIM. “Given normal handset replacement cycles, however, by the time cable has meaningfully executed on their strand- mounted small cell strategy, eSIMs will be in the preponderance of phones,” he continued. How much mobile traffic will cable be able to offload? Charter chairman and CEO Tom Rutledge estimated this January that the operator could be in position to offload about one-third of that traffic onto its own network. Moffett said such estimates are “all over the map,” with some as high as 50 percent (with Wi-Fi offload factored in) or as low as 10 percent. “We believe estimates in the range of 10-20 percent are appropriate,” he noted. “Still, the cost savings that would accrue from almost any level of offload would be significant and could potentially be transformative for cable’s MVNO economics.” o 25 July - August 2021 | CHANNEL V ISION