ChannelVision Sept-Oct 2017

other barriers. In other words, rather than building macro towers with mid- or low-band spectrum, carriers will deploy lower-powered small cells and rely on homespots and hotspots, each with a coverage radius measured in meters versus kilometers, say Deloitte analysts. Deploying fiber closer to the customers can enable efficient trans- port of increased wireless traffic from that densification. “Small cells need connections to fiber/cable backhaul to realize capacity and speed potential,” say Deloitte analysts. Existing FTTH and DOCSIS broadband networks differ from the architecture needed to support wide- spread small cell densification, the report continues. “Small cells will require dedicated fiber pairs, and thus necessitate a higher fiber count. Conversely, fiber-to-the-home is ar- chitected to maximize the amount of fiber shared between subscribers.” Without access to additional high- speed broadband and fiber tailored for small cells, carriers lack the economic incentive to deploy small cells. Like- wise, carriers will be unable to take full advantage of Wi-Fi offload to decrease wireless traffic without more deep fiber to transport all that potential new traf- fic, argues the report. “Such densification is challenged, given current fiber deployment limita- tions and the upgrade costs and de- ployment cycle times associated with traditional network architecture,” said the Deloitte deep fiber study. Streaming video and new forms of immersive media are expected to drive traffic to an estimated annual growth rate 181 percent through 2020, show Cisco figures, while a massive increase in the number of devices puts pressure on both Wi-Fi and cellular networks. Innovation in new use cases, new applications and new devices is dependent on addi- tional capacity, says Deloitte. “Without more deep fiber, carriers will be un- able to support the projected four-fold increase in mobile data traffic be- tween 2016 and 2021.” The Billion$ Broken Down Deloitte Consulting LLP analysts estimate that the United States requires $130 to $150 billion during the next five to seven years to support three broad categories of fiber investment: broadband competition, rural coverage and wireless densification. The lion’s share of the funds, or $60 to $100 billion, is proposed for fiber to increase broadband competition. To meet federal guidelines calling for at least two providers offering broadband of 25 Mbps downlink and 3Mbps uplink implies improving broadband speeds to about 55 million urban and suburban houses, as well as approximately 13 million rural houses, show FCC figures. Deloitte’s cost estimates assume that 75 percent of these 70 million homes receive fiber to the home, while the remaining 25 percent receive wireless (5G) or other technologies that can cost-effectively yield broadband speeds greater than the minimum federal requirements. Between $35 and $40 billion is pegged for rural and underserved areas, when approximately 10 million rural homes and 3 million urban/suburban homes do not have broadband of at least 25 Mbps, show FCC figures. Considering the high costs of lighting up these geographies, estimates are based on the use of alternative technologies such as fixed wireless and fiber to the node, using advanced modulation and vectoring. Nonetheless, “fiber will still play a critical role,” says Deloitte, whether to supply backhaul to wireless towers or to shorten copper distances in order to close the digital divide. The $15 to $20 billion in estimated fiber costs for wireless densification assume that a majority of densification occurs in the most populated metropolitan areas, covering approximately 48 percent of the total U.S. population. To gain efficiencies, Deloitte assumes that multiple wireless carriers will share fiber backhaul or conduit to small cells, rather than each carrier building out its own. Cost models also take into consideration the significant differences in construction costs based on population density across five categories of population concentration. There is also some accounting for synergies between the three categories. “Since more than 60 percent of total costs are for construction, permits and design, it is imperative that fiber providers can share last mile access routes and rights of way,” says the research firm. Zettabytes Channel Vision | September - October, 2017 34