When it comes to IT spending this year, uncertainties surrounding prospects for an upturn in global economic growth are the major retardants, say new findings from Gartner Inc. And, a reduction in spending on devices–PCs and tablets in particular–is another culprit for channel partners to consider. All in all, IT spending by businesses worldwide will hold steady in the stagnate low single digits for the next three years.
The analyst firm says that spending on IT from 2013 to 2016 is forecast to grow at a steady 3.9 percent CAGR. Long-term increases in mobile phones and IT services counterbalance long-term reductions in the PC and tablets forecasts, making for an even outcome.
Gartner has reduced its overall forecast for spending on devices, with growth from 2012 through 2016 now expected to average 4.5 percent annually in current U.S. dollars (down from 6.4 percent) and 5.1 percent annually in constant dollars (down from 7.4 percent). These reductions reflect a sharp reduction in the forecast growth in spending on PCs and tablets that is only partially offset by marginal increases in forecast growth in spending on mobile phones and printers, the firm said.
The decline in forecast growth in spending on PCs and tablets comes, in part, from a slight decline in expected device unit shipments but, more significantly, to an even sharper shift in volume toward tablets and away from PCs than in our previous forecast. The tablet market has seen greater price competition from Android devices, it noted, as well as smaller, low-priced devices in emerging markets.
“It is ultimately this shift toward relatively lower-priced tablets that lowers our average selling prices forecast for 2012 through 2016, which, in turn, is responsible for retarding both device spending growth in general, and PC and tablet spending growth in particular,” said Gartner analyst John-David Lovelock.
Data center systems meanwhile are forecast to grow from 2011 through 2016 at a CAGR of 3.9 percent, down from 4.4 percent, to reach $167 million in 2016. All segments have been cut back, with storage again seeing the largest downward revision — from a compound growth rate of 9 percent down to 7.9 percent. Networking saw the smallest revision, with a forecast outlook almost unchanged from the previous quarter.
Through 2016, the enterprise software market is expected to average a 6 percent CAGR over the forecast period, reaching $360 billion, which is unchanged from the previous forecast update. The sector will be driven by key markets such as security, storage management and CRM; however beginning in 2014, markets aligned to “big data” and other information management initiatives, such as enterprise content management, data integration tools, and data quality tools will begin to see increased levels of investment.
The IT services market is expected to reach just over $1 trillion by 2016, growing at a 4.5 percent average CAGR from 2011 through 2016. The outlook for consulting, implementation and business process outsourcing has been reduced slightly in all years, while overall market size and growth rates for IT outsourcing have been increased as a result of new research that provides colocation and hosting market segments within IT outsourcing.
The telecom services market will remain roughly flat over the forecast period, with declining spending on voice services counterbalanced by strong growth in spending on mobile data services. By 2016, we forecast that mobile data will represent 33 percent of the total telecom services market, up from 22 percent in 2012.
